Haute Lumière · The reading

The economy is not a machine. It never was.

Equilibrium was a modelling convenience that became a belief. What is actually there is an adaptive system with memory, and it behaves nothing like the diagram.

Treat a market as an ecosystem and the awkward facts stop being anomalies. Fat tails, cascades, regime changes, the way a correlation holds for a decade and then inverts in a week — none of that is noise around an equilibrium. It is what adaptive systems with feedback and memory do, and complexity science has the instruments for it: agent-based models, network topology, resilience analysis, the mathematics of cascade.

This series takes that apparatus through the whole field rather than as a chapter of caveats. Theory, then instruments, then the places the difference is expensive — regulation, systemic risk, crisis, development policy — and then the practitioner's end, where a model has to survive contact with a desk.

It is written to be usable by someone who has to defend a position in front of people who were taught the other thing.

Fat tails are not noise around an equilibrium. They are what the system does.

Start here

Reading is free. Keeping the file — the EPUB, the PDF, the press edition — is what a price is for, on the 6 volumes here that have one:

Keep Economic Systems as Living Systems
Keep The Complexity of Financial Markets
Keep Agent-Based Modeling in Finance
Keep Systemic Risk in Economic Systems
Keep Complexity-Informed Financial Regulation
Keep Markets as Ecosystems

And the next thing

If the interest is operational rather than analytical — running an organisation as a living system rather than modelling one — the first door below is that. The second is the developmental literature the whole series leans on.

Building a business worth working in
The stages of adult development
The four finished books